Thursday Morning Brief (15-18 July)

Good morning. Here is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Take a seat, and let’s get you up to speed on some important events from this week.

Reporting Period: 15-18 July

Bottom-Line Up Front:

(Missed earlier publications this week? No worries. Monday brief, Sunday SITREP).

House Speaker Johnson Calls For Peace, Controlled Rhetoric Following Assassination Attempt On Donald Trump
14 July 2024

In an interview with NBC News, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) urged for political rhetoric to be “turned down.” Speaker Johnson urges both Republican and Democrat leaders to support a message of unity and civility.

Why This Matters

(This is an opinionated summary by the author of The Intel Brief).

Speaker Johnson’s message is important when you consider what he implies. Political rhetoric influences culture and ideology. The associated ideas fuel action. When you have rhetoric that vilifies and encourages malicious acts, they lead to behaviors that are incompatible with the beliefs, laws, and desires of our country.

Thomas Matthew Crooks, a young a troubled young man, tried to assassinate a presidential candidate due to a narrative that was laid in his mind. As a result, and innocent man is dead, two people are critically wounded, and the political culture of the United States is forever scarred.

If there is to be accountability for political rhetoric in this country, it must begin with individual integrity, individual responsibility, and a love of truth.

Want More?

• Johnson on NBC News

Estonia’s Prime Minister Resigns To Become The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief
15 July 2014

On 15 July, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tendered her resignation so that she could begin her tenure as the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Kallas became PM in 2021 and built a reputation for her strong criticism of Russia and Vladimir Putin. She has been an ardent supported of Ukraine. Kallas will remain PM until August, when a successor government is confirmed.

Why This Matters

Kallas made a name for herself in Europe by rallying support for Ukraine across the EU. As the lead foreign policy official, Kallas has an opportunity to improve the EU’s security posture for the future. This also includes European policy regarding states like Iran, China, and North Korea. However, the bulk of the EU’s efforts will likely focus on Russia.

Want To Read More?

• Reuters coverage

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19 States Have Provided Military, Law Enforcement Personnel To The Southern Border This Year
15 July 2024

An article in the Texas Tribune claims that 19 states have deployed law enforcement or military personnel to the southern border this year. In February 2024, Republican governors gathered to discuss dealing with the border crisis. The result was deployments of law enforcement officers and national guardsmen. Texas alone had launched Operation Lone Star in 2021, which has cost the state $11 billion and the deployment of thousands of personnel.

Why This Matters

The border crisis costs the U.S. billions of dollars every year in security costs alone. The crisis has fueled organized crime and gang violence (particularly in Mexico), the drug trade, human trafficking, the fentanyl crisis, and the entry of millions of illegal migrants into the United States. Under Biden’s administration, illegal entries have hit record numbers, as have the entry of known terrorists, criminals, and violent offenders. The crisis has also seen the rise of migrants coming from the Middle East and China.

Want To Read More?

• Report by Texas Tribune

• Migrant data by CBP

China’s Economic Growth Falls Short Of Expectations This Quarter
15 July 2024

Data shows that China’s economy grew 4.7% in their June quarter, falling short of the CCP’s desired growth of 5%. BBC pointed to China’s continued property crisis, local government debt, weak consumption, and growing unemployment.

Why This Matters

China is the world’s second largest economy. World Bank dataputs the Chinese GDP at $17.79 trillion. In 1970, China’s GDP was $92.6 billion. China’s economic growth has been the driving force behind all of the CCP’s other ambitions. It has fueled massive leaps in technology (by theft), it has undercut the U.S. economy, and it has funded a massive, modern military.

China’s economic growth is unprecedented, but signs of economic woes have experts wondering if Beijing’s rise is truly as it seems. The CCP is meeting for their Third Plenumto discuss state policies. The troubled economy is likely a large part of that conversation. The Third Plenum is a four day long event and has historically been a platform for major announcements and changes.

The Third Plenum ends today. It is a restricted meeting so we don’t always have details on what was discussed, but China typically announces major policy changes (like the 1978 economic reforms or the removal of the infamous “one child policy”).

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by BBC

• More about China’s banking issue by TLDR News Global

• Third Plenum by NYT

U.S. Marines Looking For Counter-UAS Solution
15 July

On Monday, the Marine Corps issued a sources-sought notice to defense companies to procure solutions to counter small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). The Marine Corps labelled this notice as an “emerging urgent requirement” and is asking defense companies to submit options by 2 August.

The Marines are looking for solutions that can be implemented at the squad level, and can work on an optic or on a rifle. The Marines are looking for solutions to deal with “Group 1” and “Group 2” drone threats (smaller, commercial drones).

Why This Matters

The modern battlefield is evolving. Lethal capabilities, such as cheap commercial drones armed with munitions, have been used to deadly and cost-efficient effect on modern battlefields (e.g. Ukraine).

The implementation of a new, non-kinetic system implies some type of jammer or radio frequency emitter. While this might be a solution to small UAS threats, the Marine Corps needs to identify how it puts Marines at risk in the electromagnetic spectrum (i.e. does it increase their footprint).

There is also the question of adding more equipment to each Marine’s kit over time. Is it sustainable?

I’m a big fan of 12g shotguns.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Defense Scoop

• The Marine Corps notice

Senator Bob Menendez Found Guilty Of All Charges
16 July 2024

On Tuesday, Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was found guilty on 16 federal charges which included bribery and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt and Qatar. Senators are not required to resign their tenure due to felony convictions, but multiple politicians have demanded Menendez resign or face expulsion.

Following his indictment, Menendez resigned as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee but continued to vote as a panel member.

Why This Matters

Menendez’s crimes indicate two things; working for foreign interests and working against the representation of the American people. Egypt and Qatar have known ties to terrorist organizations in the Middle East, such as Hamas.

Since 1789, the Senate has only expelled 15 members. 14 of those expulsions were due to affiliations with the Confederacy during the Civil War period.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NBC News

End Brief

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Reminder for upcoming publications:

• Sunday SITREP @ 0630 ET

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