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Sunday SITREP (8-13 July 2024)
Weekly update of activity in the First Island Chain
Nicholas Weber
July 14, 2024
Good morning and welcome. Another Sunday SITREP is here to fill you in on major activity within the world’s most hotly contested gray zone - The First Island Chain.
Reporting Period: 8 - 13 July
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Taiwan experienced 178 aerial and 46 naval incursion by the PLA this week.
2. The U.S. Air Force is deploying its most modern fighters to the Pacific. Over the next few years, U.S. forces in Japan will replace their dated fights with more modern, advanced counterparts.
3. Two Russian warships began naval drills in the Indo-Pacific.
4. A Chinese carrier strike group was seen operating in the Philippine Sea. They conducted air defense drills and surface-to-air fires.
5. The Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party convenes on 15 July. The Plenum is likely to focus on economic, domestic, and military reform.
6. Japan and the Philippines signed a major defense agreement. The agreement outlines coordination and execution of joint exercises between Japan and the Philippines, as well as disaster relief operations.
(Missed this week’s briefs? Don’t worry, here is Monday’s and Thursday’s).
PLA Incursions Into Taiwanese Territory
PLA Air Force incursions: 178
PLA Navy incursions: 46
(Data courtesy of Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense)
U.S. Modernizing Its Air Power In The Pacific
8 July 2024
On 8 July, National Interest reported the Department of Defense will commit $10 billion worth of upgrades to the U.S. Air Force in the Pacific. On 3 July, the Department of Defense announced that over the “next several years,” the Air Force will deploy advanced aircraft to their facilities.
1. Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan
36 F-15EX multirole fighters will replace 48 F-15C and D fighters
2. Misawa Air Base, Misawa, Japan
48 F-35A multirole fighters will replace 36 F-16 fighters
3. MCAS Iwakuni, Iwakuni, Japan
The Marine Corps will “modify” the number of F-35B’s at Iwakuni
The decision is endorsed by Japan.
Location of the three bases. Google Earth
Why This Matters
The United States and Japan are looking to strengthen their position in the Pacific amid growing aggression by China and North Korea. Advanced fighters allow the U.S. and Japan to contend for air superiority in the event of conflict in the region.
Want To Read More?
Original press release by the Department of Defense
Coverage by National Interest
Two Russian Warships Begin Indo-Pacific Drills
8 July 2024
On Monday, two Russian corvettes departed Vladivostok to conduct exercises in the Pacific. Russian and PLA Navy vessels are currently conducting drills in the Philippine Sea. The corvettes that departed Vladivostok are the Rezky and Gromky. They are conducting surface-to-air fires and other air defense drills.
Why This Matters
Russia has been conducting joint naval drills with the Chinese, increasing tensions across the Indo-Pacific. These drills indicate a growing security relationship between Russia and China.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Economic Times (India)
Coverage by USNI News
PLA Navy Carrier Strike Group In The Philippine Sea
9 July 2024
The PLA Navy Shandong carrier strike group is conducting naval drills in the Philippine Sea. Japan reported seeing the group 323 miles southeast of Miyako Island (a Japanese island southwest of Okinawa and East of Taiwan). The group were observed conducting aviation operations.
Taiwan stated that 36 Chinese aircraft joined the strike group for these drills.
Why This Matters
China routinely conducts naval and aviation operations at sea. China threatens the use of force to bolster their island claims throughout the Pacific. China is more aggressive against the Philippines, recently ramming a Filipino vessels and firing water cannons at other vessels on multiple occasions.
Want To Read More?
China’s Third Plenum To Convene 15 July
9 July 2024
The Third Plenum session of the 20th Central Committee is scheduled for 15 July. It is one of the Chinese Communist Party’s most critical meetings. The CCP typically discusses policy and reforms, usually in line with state ideology or President Xi’s vision for China.
Why This Matters
Historically, the Third Plenum is where the CCP announce larger, more robust policy changes. This could include new plans for the economy, new diplomatic endeavors, or recommitment to military goals.
(The China Briefing has a good explanation about what the Central Committees Plenums are, so I highly recommend you check it out).
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Think China
More about the Central Committee and CCP Plenums by China Briefing
Japan And The Philippines Sign Defense Agreement
8 July 2024
On Monday, Japan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa and the Philippines’ Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos was in attendance.
The agreement establishes procedures for coordinating and executing joint military exercises and disaster relief operations between the two nations. The Philippines are the third nation, after Australia and the United Kingdom, to sign the RAA.
Why This Matters
Japan and the Philippines share mutual security concerns across the Pacific, particularly the growing aggression by China and the looming threat in North Korea. Both the Philippines and Japan align with the United States and pursue policies that “support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.”
Conflicting territorial claims have worsened relations over the years. For example, Japan and China feud over the Senkaku Islands, while the Philippines and China vie for the Spratly Islands.
Want To Read More?
Announcement by Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
End Brief
Thanks for reading another Sunday SITREP. I hope you enjoyed it.
Which of these events is the most impactful?Tell me more in the comments. |