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Sunday SITREP (15-20 July)
Weekly update of activity in the First Island Chain
Nicholas Weber
July 21, 2024
Good morning. Below is your Sunday SITREP for this week. Get up to speed on the world’s most hotly contested region - the Indo-Pacific’s First Island Chain.
Reporting Period: 15-20 July
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Taiwan experienced 107 aerial and 40 naval incursions by the PLA this week.
2. China’s Shandong Carrier Strike Group (CSG) were observed conducting operations near Miyako Island. The exercise were another example of China’s growing aggression around islands they claim in the Indo-Pacific.
3. Two Republican Senators sent a letter to President Biden asking for greater support for the Philippines. The Filipinos have been victims of Chinese aggression and incursions at sea.
4. The PLA and Russian navies concluded joint exercises in the South China Sea. There has been growing integration between Russian and Chinese forces, particularly their navies, in the Indo-Pacific.
5. Japan’s government assessed that China could land troops on Taiwan in one week. The analysis was based off a 2023 exercise conducted by China.
PLA Incursions Into Taiwanese Territory
PLA aerial incursions: 107
PLA naval incursions: 40
(Data provided by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense)
PLA Navy Carrier Strike Group Conducts Operations In Philippine Sea
16 July 2024
On 16 July, Japan’s Joint Staff Office reported that the PLA Navy Shandong Carrier Strike Group conducted 240 fighter launches and 140 helicopter take-offs while operating in the Philippine Sea. The Shandong conducted these operations from 9 to 16 July. The Shandong was observed southeast of Miyako Island.
Why This Matters
China has been ramping up their aggression and incursions across the Indo-Pacific. China has persistently used “salami tactics” to develop tactical proficiency and alter the security status quo of the region. In 2021, China passed a law allowing its Coast Guard forces to use force to enforce sovereignty claims. China and Japan both claim the Miyako Island and the Senkakus.
This is the carrier groups first deployment to the Philippine Sea this year. The group deployed to the area three times last year.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by USNI News
What are “Salami Tactics”?
Senators Ask Biden To Support The Philippines Against China
17 July 2024
On 12 July, Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Jim Risch (R-ID) penned a letter to President Biden urging greater support to the Philippines.
We request your administration provide us with a full list of military, diplomatic, and economic options developed by the Departments of State and Defense to support the Philippines and deter further escalation by the PRC (People's Republic of China)…
Why This Matters
The Philippines are a key ally for the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is also bound to protect the Philippines by a 1951 mutual defense treaty.
China has been ramping up aggression against the Philippines due to conflicting claims over the Second Thomas Shoal. In 1999, the Philippines grounded a vessel there. They station troops there to maintain their claim to the island.
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The letter from the Foreign Relations Committee
The announcement by the Foreign Relations Committee
Coverage by Reuters
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PLA and Russian Navies Finish Exercise In South China Sea
18 July 2024
The PLA and Russian Navies concluded Joint Sea 2024 (Chinese) AKA Maritime Interaction 2024 (Russian). The drills began on Monday when 3 Russian and 4 Chinese vessels departed Zhanjiang in southern China.
The exercise included live-fire and missile defense drills. A the same time, the Russians and Chinese were also conducting a 15-day long patrol that began near South Korea before transiting the Osumi Strait to enter the western Pacific. From there the patrol travelled to the Philippine Sea before retiring in the South China Sea.
Why This Matters
A Russian Ministry of Defense release says it best:
The objectives of the joint patrols are to strengthen naval cooperation between Russia and China, maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, monitor the sea area and protect the objects of maritime economic activity of Russia and China…
Maintaining “peace and stability” might be a questionable claim. These drills are a part of a growing defense partnership between Russia and China as global alliances are becoming ever more formalized.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by USNI News
Japanese Assessment: China Can Land On Taiwan In One Week
18 July 2024
Based on an analysis of Chinese military exercises conducted in 2023, the Japanese government concluded that China's military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within just one week of imposing a naval blockade. This timeframe contrasts with previous estimates of about one month required for such an operation. Chinese military units could swiftly establish beachheads and deploy substantial ground forces on Taiwan following the initiation of maritime and air blockades. This strategy is designed to exploit the period before potential international military responses could intervene.
Why This Matters
If the People's Liberation Army (PLA) enhances its capabilities to a level where they believe they can decisively invade and hold Taiwan, the probability of an invasion rises.
China’s fear is that U.S. involvement - within a certain time period - would hinder or defeat such an invasion. Japanese security laws from 2016 muddy the waters in terms of how Japan would respond to an invasion of Taiwan.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by The Japan News
End Brief
Thank you for reading another Sunday SITREP. If you enjoyed it, please consider sending it to friends, family, or colleagues.
Remember, two more briefs are coming this week:
Monday morning brief @ 0630 ET
Thursday morning brief @ 0630 ET
Thank you for your continued support,
Nick