Monday Morning Brief (25-28 July)

A Russian and Chinese patrol near Alaska, High-level politicking in Asia, plus more...

Author

Nicholas Weber
July 29, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning!

Welcome to the Monday edition of The Intel Brief. There is some interesting stuff here; stuff that will yield results down the road.

Reporting Period: 25-28 July

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. Russian and Chinese bombers entered Alaskan airspace. Despite it being a change in precedent, NORAD downplayed the incident because they remained over international waters.

2. Two leaders of the Mexico-based Sinaloa Cartel were arrested. This includes one of the co-founders, and indicates a bigger push against the organized crime crisis along the southern border.

3. The Select Committee on the CCP announced the PRC Risk Transparency Act. The bill would require companies and investors to disclose their relationships - and assets - they share with the CCP.

4. The Air Force’s ULTRA drone completed a 3-day mission in Utah. The drone has seen limited operations in the Middle East.

5. The United States and Japan announced the restructuring of U.S. Forces Japan. This will ultimately empower the Japanese to be a greater deterrence factor.

Missed the Sunday SITREP? Fear not - link.

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Chinese, Russian Aircraft Escorted Away From Alaskan Airspace
25 July 2024

NORAD reported that on 24 July, two Chinese Xi’an H-6 strategic bombers and two Russian Tupelov Tu-95 strategic bombers flew through a part of Alaska’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

NORAD stated that the aircraft remained in international airspace and were not perceived as a threat. U.S. and Canadian fighters intercepted the bombers.

Why This Matters

As a standalone incident, this is insignificant. Russia has conducted such flights in the past. However, there are some other details that reflect why this could be a sign of long-term trouble:

  • We don’t know where the bombers took off from. If they came from Russia, that is a new level of Russo-Sino cooperation.

  • This is the first time China has flown these types of aircraft in this part of the world, ever.

  • Russia and China committed to greater security cooperation in 2022, and have lived up to that promise. Last week they held joint naval drills in the South China Sea.

  • Last week, three PLA Navy vessels were detected by the U.S. Coast Guard 124 miles north of the Aleutian Islands.

This is a show of force that characterizes international competition, but it is also reminiscent of the “Salami Slicing” China performs against Taiwan.

Want To Read More?

  • Press release by NORAD

  • Coverage by The Warzone Wire

  • Last week’s naval activity by CBS

  • Salami Slicing by Japan Times (this is a key feature of tactics that influence strategy in the Pacific)

Leaders Of Mexican Sinaloa Cartel Arrested In Texas
26 July 2024

On 25 July, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced that cartel leaders Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada Garcia and co-founder Joaquin Guzman were arrested in El Paso, Texas. They were arrested as a part of a crackdown on fentanyl manufacturers and traffickers in the southwest region.

Fentanyl flow into the U.S. DEA

Why This Matters

U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) states the Sinaloa cartel has smuggled millions of pounds of drugs into the U.S., as well as weapons and persons. The cartel operates around Sontoya, a city along Arizona’s border.

The cartel are also known to work with the Chinese criminal syndicate who act as bankers and suppliers to the cartel.

Want To Read More?

Select Committee on the CCP Announces PRC Risk Transparency Act
25 July 2024

Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO) have introduced the PRC Risk Transparency Act, a bill aimed at increasing transparency regarding the risks associated with U.S. investments in China.

The legislation would require public companies with connections to China to disclose detailed information about their revenue, investments, and supply chains linked to the PRC. It would also require them to detail their connections to the Chinese Communist Party and entities deemed national security threats or human rights violators.

Why This Matters

China is a major political and security risk, and decades of negligence have allowed the CCP and PLA to ascend as a hegemonic contender in the Pacific. Given some of China’s strategic ambitions (particularly the seizure of Taiwan), the U.S. is beginning to recognize the CCP as an outright adversary.

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This is a proactive step in fortifying our economy against the risks posed by the PRC and ensures the long-term stability of our financial markets as we navigate increased Chinese aggression towards the United States and our allies.

Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO)

Want To Read More?

New Air Force Drone Proves Itself During 3-Day Trials
26 July 2024

The Air Force’s Unmanned Long-Endurance Tactical Reconnaissance Aircraft (ULTRA) completed a 3-day long flight trial in Utah. ULTRA was first developed in 2019. ULTRA has advanced 360 degree sensors, has an 80-hour loiter time, and uses commercial parts supplied through an established supply chain.

ULTRA is intended to be an advanced yet economical ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) solution.

Why This Matters

Drone technology is advancing rapidly, and providing high-quality capabilities at cost is more important than ever. War is not solely about having the cutting-edge technology, it also about having the cost advantage.

Want To Read More?

United States Redesigning Military Structure In Japan
28 July 2024

In Tokyo, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, alongside Japanese officials, announced that U.S. Force Japan will be restructured into a joint force headquarters under the INDOPACOM commander. The restructure is an effort to enhance joint cooperation and interoperability amid growing PLA aggression and closer alignment by China, Russia, and North Korea.

Austin called this the most significant change to our military relationship with Japan in 70 years.

Why This Matters

Nearly 54,000 American military personnel are stationed in Japan under the 1960 mutual cooperation and security treaty. For decades, Japan’s military was held back with a strictly defensive posture and low funding.

Now, Japan is postured to spend 2% of its GDP on defense by 2027. The restructure is a positive change, indicating that Japan will grow its military footprint and seek deeper integration into American operations and strategy in the region.

Want To Read More?

  • Coverage by CNN

End Brief

That concludes another Monday morning brief. Thanks for sticking around.

See you again on Thursday @ 0630 ET.

Nick