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Sunday SITREP (21-27 July)
Weekly update of activity in the First Island Chain.
Nicholas Weber
July 28, 2024
Good morning.
This is your Sunday SITREP. Get up to speed on the world’s most hotly contested region - the Indo-Pacific’s First Island Chain.
Reporting Period: 21-27 July
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Taiwan experienced 74 aerial and 41 naval incursions into its ADIZ during this period. There were no incursions reported on Friday.
2. China and the Philippines both agreed to de-escalation terms in the Second Thomas Shoal. Manila has questioned the terms, claiming China made false allegations.
3. Taiwan launched the annual Han Kuang military exercise alongside the civil defense Han’an drills. Taiwan is aiming for the drills to be as realistic as possible this year.
4. In response to exercises, China launched a drone that circled all of Taiwan. Some other aircraft and naval vessels also accompanied the drone.
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PLA Incursions Into Taiwan’s ADIZ
PLA aircraft incursions: 74
PLA naval incursions: 41
Comment: In a rare occurrence, there were no detections of PLA aircraft or vessels on Friday, 26 July.
(Data provided by Ministry of National Defense Republic of China)
China, Philippines Agree To De-escalation Terms But Struggle To Uphold Them
24 July 2024
Beijing and Manila had agreed to a provisional arrangement that would allow for Filipino forces to resupply Filipino Marines stationed in the Second Thomas Shoal, an area China claims. The Marines are stationed on the grounded BRP Sierra Madre and require regular resupply.
That deal is now in question due to disagreements on the terms. The Chinese claimed they would allow resupplies so long as they were notified ahead of time and could supervise the interaction. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs rejects these parameters.
Why This Matters
Tensions between China and the Philippines have grown. President Marcos has, since taking office, worked to press claims and grow the Filipino-American partnership. These tensions have led to multiple standoffs, the most recent being on 17 June when the Chinese rammed a Filipino resupply vessel and injured several crew members.
That June confrontation resulted in the United States reminding the world (but mostly China) that we are bound to a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by CNN
June incident press release by the State Department
Taiwan Launches Exercise, Aims For Realism
22 July 2024
On 22 July, Taiwan began its annual “Han Kuang” exercise. The exercise is aimed at full-scale defensive operations to include the defense of beaches, avenues of approach, cities, littorals, and airspace. The five days of wargames coincides with the civil defense drill “Wan’an” which includes the mobilization of reservists, shelter in place drills, and evacuations.
But China has also been using grey zone warfare against Taiwan, wielding irregular tactics to exhaust a foe by keeping them continually on alert without resorting to open combat. This includes almost daily air force missions into the skies near Taiwan.
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control.
Why This Matters
Taiwan’s existence depends on their ability to deter a Chinese threat, or hold out long enough for a substantial American-led intervention. There is no certainty as to when a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could occur, but the CCP and PLA have relentlessly developed their capabilities to do so.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Reuters
Chinese Drone Circles Taiwan In Response To Exercise
22 July 2024
On 22 July, Taiwan launched the Han Kuang and Han’an exercises. In response, China deployed a long-range surveillance drone to circle Taiwan. This is the sixth time since April 2023 a PLA drone have circumnavigated Taiwan.
12 PLA aircraft and 7 naval vessels also violated Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) during the drone’s sortie.
This map shows the route (red) of China’s surveillance drone. The other detected PLA assets are marked with exclamation points. Fort Bend Herald
Why This Matters
This is another show of force intent on pressuring Taiwan. China has run a decades-long marathon of military aggression and tactical level incursions in order to exhaust and dishearten the Taiwanese.
This is a sign that such aggression will very likely continue.
Want To Read More?
Video coverage by Fort Bend Herald
End Brief
Thank you for reading another Sunday SITREP, and for taking interest in this hotly contested region. Americans must understand that if the crisis we fear arrives, that it did not come suddenly.
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Cheers,
Nick