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Monday Morning Brief (18-21 July)
President Biden will not seek reelection, plus more...
Nicholas Weber
July 22, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning. Here is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief to start your week.
There are some critical things to catch up on, so give yourself about 6 minutes and 30 seconds to read this.
Reporting Period: 18-21 July
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. President Biden announced he will not seek reelection. Biden followed his announcement with an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris.
2. On Thursday, China concluded it’s Central Committee’s Third Plenum. At the event, Xi urged for loyalty to his vision for China, and highlighted new policy and strategy directions.
3. The U.S. Army and Navy demonstrated new command and control (C2) and air defense platforms in exercises this week. The LTAMDS and LRHW were debuted.
4. New data shows that supply chain disruptions rose 30% in the first half of 2024. The data was compared to the first half of 2023.
5. An error in CrowdStrike software has led to a global IT outage on some Microsoft systems. Some say it is the largest IT outage in history.
6. The U.S. Air Force announced it reached a deal with Boeing to acquire the E-7 Wedgetail. The Wedgetail will be a much needed upgrade to America’s airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) capability.
7. RIMPAC begins its second phase today. RIMPAC is the largest exercise of its kind, but has not deterred Russian and Chinese naval activity in the region.
Missed the Sunday SITREP? Don’t worry. Here it is.
REMINDER: Israel’s PM Netanyahu To Speak Before Congress This Week
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is speaking to Congress on 24 July. The event is expected to be boycotted by some Democrats. Speaker Johnson said security measures will be heightened due to expected demonstrations and the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu is expected to make a case for why the U.S. should continue to support Israel during its ongoing “seven-front war”. This is the fourth time Netanyahu has spoken before Congress.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Times of Israel
President Biden Announces He Will Not Seek Reelection
21 July 2024
In a post on X, President Biden announced he will not be seeking reelection. Biden stated he will address the nation later this week.
Biden further elaborated:
And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.
Following his announcement, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden)
6:13 PM • Jul 21, 2024
Why This Matters
Biden’s announcement to step down is historic. Biden had received pressure from top Democrats (such as Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer) to step down. The last president to not seek reelection was Lyndon Johnson in 1968.
The Democratic party have yet to decide who will run against Trump.
Apparent frontrunners are:
Vice President Kamala Harris
California Governor Gavin Newsom
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Top Democrats who asked Biden to step down (notably Obama) have not endorsed Kamala Harris.
Want To Read More?
(Standby for further coverage in Thursday’s newsletter)
Chinese Communist Party Releases Communique Following Third Plenum, Issues 2029 Tasks
18 July 2024
On 18 July, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) released a communique detailing the events and goals established by the Third Plenum. The Third Plenum convened from 15 to 18 July. The CCP’s will pursue these newly prescribed goals for 2029, which will be the 80th anniversary of the CCP.
During the Third Plenum, three high-ranking officials were expelled. Former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu were removed from the Central Committee. Gang apparently resigned while Shangfu was expelled. PLA Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao was also expelled on corruption charges.
There is speculation that Xi Jinping could be preparing for an unprecedented fourth terms as China’s leader.
Why This Matters
The CCP typically uses the Third Plenum to pat itself on the back and realign China’s policy for the next five years. In this case, the CCP felt it had achieved its goals (especially with economic growth), but acknowledged that the next period needs to focus on developing ideology along the party line, resolving some economic issues, pursuing “major-country” diplomacy, and working towards goals related to Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. Details of implementation were not offered to the public.
Xi also emphasized the need for CCP members to display “unwavering faith and commitment” to his vision. Since his tenure began in 2012, Xi has been known to purge dissidents from the PLA and CCP.
(You can read a full translation of the Communique below).
Want To Read More?
The Communique by China Daily (this is a Chinese source)
Some broad takeaways by FX Street
Central Committee expulsions by Reuters
A fourth term for Xi? (ABC News)
New U.S. Military Systems Debuted With Resounding Success
18 July 2024
On 18 July, Raytheon announced that the U.S. Navy’s Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) intercepted a target with guidance from the U.S. Army's new Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) during exercise Valiant Shield 24.
On 17 July, the U.S. Army announced that the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) Battery made its debut in the joint exercise Resolute Hunter 24-2.
Why This Matters
The war in Ukraine has proved that modern warfare requires complex, robust solutions to myriad air threats such as drones, advanced aircraft, and hypersonic missiles.
These recent displays by the Navy and Army not only show the U.S. is successfully developing the technology, but that we can employ them in a joint, integrated environment.
Want To Read More?
The LRHW by DVIDS
The LTAMDS by Defense News
Performance at Valiant Shield 24 by Defense News
2024 Has Seen Growth In Supply Chain Disruptions
18 July 2024
The American Journal of Transportation (AJOT) reported that the first half of 2024 saw supply chain disruptions increase by 30%. Resilinc reported 10,629 disruptions across 5 industries, to include healthcare, manufacturing, and automotive.
Why This Matters
The supply chain issues reflect the complexity of globalization, with much of the disruptions occurring outside of the United States. Disruptions to the supply chain tend to have secondary or tertiary economic effects, like availability of goods, rising costs, and shifting consumer demand.
Want To Read More?
The report (and data) by AJOT
Effects of disruptions by European Central Bank
Largest IT Outage In History Caused By Microsoft-CrowdStrike Issue
19 July 2024
An error in CrowdStrike’s cybersecurity software crashed Microsoft operating systems worldwide, resulting in disruptions with global ports, air freight systems, and commercial airlines. Some systems could take days or weeks to fix.
Commercial air travel was highly effected, with nearly 3,000 global flights cancelled. American, United, and Delta airlines ordered a “global ground stop” of their flights due to the outage.
CrowdStrike said the outage was caused by a single defect found in a Windows’ content update.
Why This Matters
Leaving the IT issue unresolved will lead to further delays in shipping, mail delivery, financial services, and commercial travel. The U.S. Secretary of Transportation warned of a “ripple or cascade effect” should the issue remain.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by NBC
Technical details released by CrowdStrike
Op-ed by The Conversation
U.S. Air Force, Boeing Agree To Deal For E-7 Wedgetail
20 July 2024
The U.S. Air Force announced it reached a deal with Boeing to acquire the E-7 Wedgetail airborne warning and control aircraft. The Wedgetail will replace the dated E-3 Sentry (a.k.a. AWACS). The negotiations were slowed by disagreements on price.
Why This Matters
The Air Force desperately needs to replace the Cold War-era E-3 Sentry. The E-7 will be an upgrade to current Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) capability. The E-7 will perform command and control (C2) operations (which are integral to air battle management) by using radar to detect aircraft, surface vessels, and missiles for effective C2.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Yahoo! Finance
More about the E-7 by Boeing
RIMPAC Enters Second Phase Today
19 July 2024
The Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise begins its second phase today. The exercise takes place around the waters of Hawaii. The exercise is led by the United States and includes 29 countries in total.
During the second phase, the amphibious landing ship Tarawa will be sunk in a live-fire exercise.
Why This Matters
RIMPAC is the world’s largest international naval warfare exercise. The second phase is beginning following weeks of tension across the Indo-Pacific. China and Russia recently concluded joint military drills in the Pacific. At the same time, China’s Shandong carrier strike group were conducting exercises in the Philippine Sea.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by VOA News
End Brief
Thank you for reading another Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.
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Have a great week!
Nick