Thursday Morning Brief (8-11 July 2024)

NATO leaders gather for a summit in Washington, plus more...

Author

Nicholas Weber
July 11, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning, and thanks for checking out this Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. There’s some good stuff to cover, so take a seat and enjoy.

Reporting Period: 8-11 July

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban met with Xi Jinping in Beijing following a meeting with Putin in Moscow on 5 July. Orban says his these visits are to organize a plan for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

2. Japan and the Philippines signed a new defense agreement. The agreement is to coordinate future military cooperation between the two nations.

3. Speaker Mike Johnson announced legislation targeting the Chinese Communist Party. The legislation is being drafted and is planned for vote and implementation in Fall 2024. It is aimed at restricting punishing Chinese military firms, predatory economic policies, and could restrict investment into China.

4. The NATO summit in Washington ends today. NATO leaders and defense executives discussed increasing defense manufacturing, procuring new air defenses for Ukraine, and forming closer security relationships with partners in the Indo-Pacific.

5. The Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party convenes on 15 July. The Plenum is likely to focus on economic, domestic, and military reform.

(Missed Monday morning’s brief? No worries, check it out here).

Hungary’s Orban Meeting With Xi Jinping Following Russia Visit
8 July 2024

On 5 July, Hungary’s head of state, PM Viktor Orban, made a surprise visit to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. Orban’s European counterparts were unsupportive of his visit to Moscow. On Monday, Orban continued with a visit to President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Orban believes China is integral in reaching in a ceasefire in Ukraine. Orban says he will go to Washington after his visit to Beijing.

Why This Matters

Viktor Orban is a figure of controversy in the EU. Orban is notorious for keeping open dialogue with Putin despite the Ukraine war, resisting Western-led sanctions on Moscow, and restricting Hungarian aid to Ukraine.

Orban is open to working closer with China on trade, investment, and technology. Hungary currently holds the presidency for the Council of the European Union, and could attempt to sway Europe to be more open to Russian and Chinese relations.

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Japan And The Philippines Sign Defense Agreement
8 July 2024

On Monday, Japan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa and the Philippines’ Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos was in attendance.

The agreement establishes procedures for coordinating and executing joint military exercises and disaster relief operations between the two nations. The Philippines are the third nation, after Australia and the United Kingdom, to sign the RAA.

Why This Matters

Japan and the Philippines share mutual security concerns across the Pacific, particularly the growing aggression by China and the looming threat in North Korea. Both the Philippines and Japan align with the United States and pursue policies that “support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.”

Conflicting territorial claims have worsened relations over the years. For example, Japan and China feud over the Senkaku Islands, while the Philippines and China vie for the Spratly Islands.

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Speaker Mike Johnson Announces Legislation To Counter China
8 July 2024

On Monday, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced plans for new legislation to target the Chinese economy and military development. Johnson said the legislation is being drafted for voting and implementation for Fall 2024.

“We will build our sanctions package, punish the Chinese military firms that provide material support to Russia and Iran, and we’ll consider options to restrict outbound investments in China…”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)

Why This Matters

The United States government is late to addressing a simple truth: China is our principle security threat. Johnson’s announcement is a sign that regardless who wins the 2024 Presidential Election, the U.S. is ready to be more serious on China.

On 27 June, the House Oversight Committee discussed American negligence, ignorance, and laziness in dealing with China across decades. On 2 July, Chairman Moolenaar (R-MI) of the House Select Committee on the CCP announced the Protecting American Innovation and Development (PAID) Act to protect American technology and innovation.

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NATO Summit Ends Today
11 July 2024

The NATO summit in Washington ends today. NATO leaders gathered to discuss joint defense policies and to celebrate 75 years of the alliance. Here are some notable things that have been discussed:

1. “They will get this assistance before anyone else gets it…” (President Biden)

In his opening speech, Biden announced that the U.S. would provide more air defense platforms and munitions to Ukraine. Specifically, the United States, Germany, and Romania will each provide a PATRIOT battery to Ukraine. Italy is providing a SAMP-T system. More nations are assessing what they can provide.

2. “For the first time ever, every ally will pledge to develop plans to strengthen their defense industrial capacity at home…” (Jake Sullivan)

NATO leaders and defense company executives are committing to a new “defense industrial pledge” to further develop defense equipment and munitions. NATO wants to make more joint defense ventures like this to lower costs and grow innovation. A good sign, note that not all NATO members even meet the 2% GDP spending requirement.

3. “Just today, the NSPA signed a new multinational contract for stinger missiles…” (Jens Stoltenberg)

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO signed a new Stinger missile contract valued at around $700 million. The aim is to recoup short-range air defense (SHORAD) capabilities due to Stinger donations to Ukraine.

4. “NATO and Indo-Pacific Partners will meet…to discuss the increasing connectivity between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security…” (The White House)

NATO is committed to its historic focus in Europe, but this year a group of Pacific partners discussed security concerns in Asia. NATO met with non-NATO members Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. A senior official said that the summit would finish with statements on China today.

5. “…jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against Russian aggression…” (Antony Blinken)

On 10 July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine from the Netherlands and Denmark. Ukraine could get 43 F-16s based on earlier commitments. NATO will also commit $43 billion from the alliance to Ukraine for 2025.

Comment: With the NATO summit ending today, there will likely be more speeches and announcements to policy changes. Ukraine voiced its desire to be invited to NATO despite the U.S. stating such an event was unlikely during the summit.

China’s Third Plenum To Convene 15 July
9 July 2024

The Third Plenum session of the 20th Central Committee is scheduled for 15 July. It is one of the Chinese Communist Party’s most critical meetings. The CCP typically discusses policy and reforms, usually in line with state ideology or President Xi’s vision for China.

Why This Matters

Historically, the Third Plenum is where the CCP announce larger, more robust policy changes. This could include new plans for the economy, new diplomatic endeavors, or recommitment to military goals.

(The China Briefing has a good explanation about what the Central Committees Plenums are, so I highly recommend you check it out).

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End Brief

Thanks for sticking around for another brief. Have a great weekend and don’t forget to read the next newsletters:

  • Sunday SITREP @ 0630

  • Monday Morning Brief @ 0630

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