Thursday Morning Brief (21-24 October)

Russia hosted the 16th BRICS Summit, the US and NATO acknowledge North Korean soldiers are in Russia, and more Chinese naval drills near Taiwan. Plus more...

Author

Nicholas Weber
October 24, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals

Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. We have some interesting updates to cover today, so give yourself about 6 minutes for this one.

Reporting Period: 21-24 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

1. The 16th BRICS Summit was in Kazan, Russia. Russia wants the world to know it doesn’t need western partnerships and institutions. BRICS is becoming a formal challenger to the G7 and a liberal-dominant world order.

2. Lloyd Austin III visited Kyiv. He wanted to reaffirm the US commitment to Ukraine. It is likely his last trip to Ukraine before elections. At the same time, it was confirmed that North Korean troops are in Russia and preparing for combat operations in Ukraine.

3. Germany established a new naval command for NATO in the Baltic Sea. The CTF will organize and coordinate all peacetime, emergency, and wartime naval efforts in the Baltic. It will be commanded by a German admiral and supported by 11 other NATO officers.

4. China launched live-fire drills near Taiwan. The CCP said the drills were due to Taiwan refusing Chinese sovereignty. Taiwan said that any future blockades will be considered an act of war.

5. The FBI is investigating a US Intelligence leak. Documents about Israel’s plans for striking Iran were posted to Telegram. The FBI is trying to determine if it was a leak or a hack, who did it, and how.

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BRICS Meeting Challenges US-Led Order, Generates Prestige For Russia

On 22 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin began meetings with leaders from China, India, Turkey, and Iran in Kazan for the 16th BRICS summit. The BRICS alliance, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded significantly this year, adding Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Yuri Ushakov, a Russian foreign policy official, said that 32 countries confirmed participation with over 20 heads of state attending. Putin plans to hold around 20 bilateral meetings, aiming to enhance Russia's global presence and negotiate economic deals to support its war effort.

The BRICS summit concludes today.

Surprisingly, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Putin in a sideline meeting in Kazan.

For the 16th BRICS Summit, there are some key strategic objectives Putin focused on:

1. Sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty with Iran

2. Increase weapons sales with Iran

3. Grow China’s commitment to BRICS alongside the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

4. Seek deeper economic, technology, and military ties with China

5. Bring attention to the Xi-Putin friendship

6. Entertain India’s strategic interests to lure them deeper into BRICS

7. Take steps to develop BRICS into a comprehensive organization and not just an economic forum

8. Approve Turkey’s membership to BRICS and erode its commitments to the EU and NATO

Why This Matters

BRICS is currently the most legitimate challenger to the US-led G7 in terms of economics. Alongside the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS also has the potential to be a substantial security pact. It is also showing that despite Western perceptions and narratives, Russia is still a dominant geopolitical force and multipolar systems advocate.

Want To Read More?

  • Coverage by NPR

  • Coverage and UN presence by RFE/RL

  • Coverage by BBC

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SecDef Visits Ukraine, North Koreans Prepare To Hit The Frontlines For Russia

On 21 October, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III met with Ukraine’s Minister of Defense in Kyiv. Austin’s visit coincides with new aid commitments to Ukraine. The latest Ukraine aid package will be worth $400 million and will focus on sourcing munitions for air defense systems, artillery, and armored vehicles. This is likely Austin’s last visit to Ukraine before the 5 November elections.

On 20 October, a video surfaced on X showing North Koreans being issued Russian uniform items at the Sergievsky Training Ground. The video is the first hard evidence that North Korean soldiers are preparing for combat operations in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service recently reported that Pyongyang had sent 1,500 North Korean special forces for training in Russia’s Far East.

Previously, North Korean officers were operating in Russia and Ukraine to advise the employment of North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missiles.

On 23 October, Secretary of Defense Austin acknowledged that North Korean troops are in Russia. This is the first public acknowledgment by an American official on this development.

Why This Matters

Russia’s use of North Korean troops signals Moscow’s commitment to their offensive campaign in Ukraine, and not a narrative of high-level war weariness. It is uncertain how Russia will use North Korean troops. It is likely that their initial role will be to relieve Russian reservists along the border to free them up for combat operations.

The escalation of North Korea participants has overshadowed a UN report that claims Ukraine’s population has declined by 10 million. Both VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have not clarified their commitments to Ukraine in the event of election victory.

NATO is deeply concerned by Russia’s use of North Korea troops and said the decision is a significant “escalation.”

Want To Read More?

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Germany Establishes New NATO Naval Command In Baltic Sea

On 21 October, Germany established a new tactical naval headquarters for NATO. The Command Task Force (CTF) is located in Rostock and will coordinate all NATO naval activities in the Baltic Sea.

Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the establishment of the CTF as Germany’s newest commitment to NATO as its willingness to oversee operations during peace, crisis, or war. The CTF will be led by a German admiral and will be staffed by 11 other NATO officers.

Why This Matters

This initiative highlights the Baltic Sea's strategic importance, especially following deteriorating relations with Russia after the Ukraine conflict. The presence of the Russian Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad underscores the need for NATO to secure open sea routes, particularly given the alliance's eastward expansion since the Cold War and the recent accession of Finland and Sweden. The CTF Baltic aims to ensure maritime security and readiness in the face of potential threats from Russia.

Want To Read More?

  • Coverage by DW

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China Launches Live-Fire Exercise In Waters Near Taiwan; Taiwan Defines Acts Of War

On 22 October, China launched a series of live-fire drills near the Pingtan islands. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense is monitoring the exercises which it views as an annual show of force aimed at increasing Cross-Strait tensions.

The CCP said the drills near Pingtan were due to Taiwan not recognizing CCP sovereignty.

The drills follow China’s 10 October “Joint Sword-2024B” exercise which surrounded Taiwan. This exercise is also preceded by Xi Jinping’s message to the PLA to “prepare for war.”

On 23 October, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo said that a future blockade of Taiwan by the PLA Navy and PLA Coast Guard would be considered an act of war. The “Joint Sword-2024B” maneuvers simulated a blockade of Taiwan.

Why This Matters

These recent drills have significantly heightened tensions in the Taiwanese Strait. They reflect China’s increasing aggression as well as its growing military readiness.

Taiwan’s warning about future blockades is also a stark development. It raises questions as to whether or not Taiwan would respond with its own maneuvers in the event of another large-scale PLA exercise.

The US has urged China to scale back its aggressive military actions but remains committed to the defense of Taiwan.

Want To Read More?

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FBI Investigating Leak Of Classified Intelligence To Iran

On 22 October, the FBI announced it is investigating a leak of classified US intelligence documents to Iran. The documents, which were labelled “Top Secret,” detailed some of Israel’s strike plans on Iranian facilities. The documents surfaced on an Iranian-linked Telegram account.

The documents reportedly did not provide critical details about Israel’s plans. The FBI is starting its investigation with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency

Why This Matters

The leak is one more example of security and intelligence failures during this administration’s tenure. Of note was a leak of a Russia-Ukraine War assessment in 2023 or the leaking of Iranian Nuclear Deal documents.

Additionally, Biden’s administration placed Robert Malley, the envoy to Iran, on leave after he violated multiple security protocols. The Biden admin has also appointed personnel a part of the Iranian-organized Iran Experts Initiative to high-level security and diplomatic positions.

Finally, the ODNI recently stated that they believe Iran has not pursued the development of nuclear weapons since 2003 despite multiple IAEA reports claiming otherwise.

Do we have a politicization problem in national security?

Want To Read More?

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

Be sure to forward this brief to someone who might find it useful or informative.

Thanks for reading and see you on Sunday,

Nick