Thursday Morning Brief (1-3 July 2024)

It is not any old Thursday, it is The Fourth of July! I have another edition of The Intel Brief for you, but if you didn’t see yesterday’s 4th of July reflection post, please take a look at it here: July 4 Reflection.

Alright, back to it…

Grab your coffee and take a seat. This should take 5 minutes to read.

Reporting Period: 1-3 July

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• Russia is trying to deteriorate Ukrainian sovereignty and play the long game in Ukraine.

• The UN approved a Chinese resolution on the principles behind developing and expanding global AI usage.

• Recent purges in the Chinese Communist Party and PLA have onlookers questioning China’s military readiness.

• The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is meeting in Kazakhstan, where it is expected Russia and China will refine their security and economic partnership.

• American farmland owned by Chinese entities is a continued, growing concern for U.S. leaders.

Russia Is Likely To Draw Out The War In Ukraine, Deteriorate Ukrainian Sovereignty
1 July 2024

A report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that part of Russia’s war goals are to deteriorate the institutions that define Ukrainian nationhood. A quote from the study states how Russia plans to do this:

Why This Matters

If Russia is unable to achieve its military objectives and integrate Ukrainian territory into Russia by conquest, then Russia may be more interested in lengthening the conflict.

Moscow could alter its strategy to protract the conflict and continue a war of attrition. Ukraine might not be capable of waging such a war if economic and military aid from the West falters.

This type of strategy would make a ceasefire under Russian conditions more likely. Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire have included the integration of Ukraine’s eastern territory into Russia.

Want To Read More?

• The original report by ISW

UN Adopts Chinese Resolution For Global Artificial Intelligence Access
2 July 2024

On 1 July, a Chinese resolution advocating global access to artificial intelligence was approved in the United Nations. The resolution claims to make AI “safe, secure and trustworthy.”

The United States supported the resolution. On 21 June, the U.S. Treasury Department issued sanctions that would restrict and monitor American investments into Chinese companies and programs working on AI, advanced microchips, and next-generation computing technology.

Why This Matters

The United States and other nations may have supported the Chinese resolution to show good faith and progress their own policy agendas, but there needs to be greater concern in monitoring and regulating China’s AI developments.

It is likely that China will export its AI to global users under a guise of equitable access to technology.

In May, China’s Cyberspace Research Institute began integrating Chinese Communist doctrine into its software. President Xi’s ideological manifesto titled “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was integrated into China’s AI.

Want To Read More?

• China’s ideological manipulation of AI by The Countermeasure

• The UN resolution by ABC News

Chinese Military Purges Leave Questions About PLA Readiness
1 July 2024

On 27 June, China announced that it formally expelled two former Defense Ministers from the Chinese Communist Party on charges of corruption. The two former defense ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, are the most senior personnel to be purged. Since July 2023, Xi has removed more than a dozen PLA generals from their positions.

Why This Matters

Continued purges indicate that President Xi is dissatisfied with the PLA’s current performance. Purges also suggest that the PLA might not be developing at a desired rate, and are not progressing towards strategic goals (namely the ability to seize Taiwan) at an acceptable rate. The purges also suggest Xi is not satisfied will the ideological viewpoints of his high-level officials.

Xi has used purges to align his elites with his strategic goals since he took office in 2012.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

Putin and Xi Jinping To Meet In Kazakhstan
2 July 2024

On 2 July, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is meeting in Kazakhstan for their annual meeting. SCO is a 9-member security, political and economic cooperation pack that is anti-NATO. This year, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are expected to meet to discuss deeper economic and security integration between the two.

The SCO was established by China and Russia in 2001. One of the SCO’s goals are to “promote a new democratic, fair and rational international political and economic international order.” This mission statement is interpreted at being anti-Western.

Comment: India’s Narendra Modi did not attend this year. The SCO is considering granting Belarus membership.

Why This Matters

The SCO is a major platform for countries that have recently formed the anti-Western bloc. Typically, the annual meeting has been a stage for major announcement. Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative here.

Additionally, much like the G7, the opportunity is used to align policy objectives and increase diplomatic, economic, and military ties. In the case of Russia and China, the two are likely to discuss their questionable security relationship.

Guardian noted that Central Asia has seen a boom in imports from China because they are going directly to Russia (to support the military and economy), something the West cannot control.

Want To Read More?

• The SCO website

• Press release by SCO

• Coverage by The Guardian

American Farmland Owned By The Chinese Government A Threat To National Security
2 July 2024

On 2 July, the American First Policy Institute (AFPI) released a series of fact sheets under their “China Policy Initiative” that highlights how CCP land ownership threatens American critical infrastructure.

The AFPI release follows a 20 June report by the New York Post that showed the CCP owns farmland next to 19 U.S. military bases.

Why This Matters

China’s ownership of American land enables CCP agents to engage in surveillance and espionage activity. In the event of deteriorated relations between the U.S. and China, access to critical infrastructure enables the CCP to begin campaigns of sabotage.

Want To Read More?

• AFPI’s China Policy Initiative fact sheets

• The New York Post reporting

• FBI warning on Chinese sabotage

End Brief

That concludes this morning’s brief. Enjoy your Fourth of July.

Don’t miss these upcoming posts:

• Sunday SITREP on 7 June @ 0630

• Monday morning brief on 8 June @ 0630

P.S. Do me a favor; if you enjoyed this brief, think of ONE person who would enjoy it and forward it to them. Thank you!