Pacific Weekly (21-27 October)

A $2 billion deal for Taiwan, a pivotal BRICS Summit in Russia, and a live-fire exercise near Taiwan. Plus more...

Author

Nicholas Weber
October 27, 2024

Pacific Weekly

Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 21-27 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

1. Xi Jinping and Putin met at the 16th BRICS Summit. They met to increase their strategic partnership and to grow their aspirations for a multipolar world.

2. The US and Japan launched exercise “Keen Sword 25.” This is a biennial exercise and takes place across Japan. The partner militaries are working on improving bilateral cooperation across ground, naval, and air operations.

3. Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi met during the BRICS Summit. The two also agreed to restrict border incursions and violence in the Himalayas. This is their first meeting since 2019, and shows China’s interest in seeking a partnership with India.

4. China launched live-fire drills near Taiwan. The CCP said the drills were due to Taiwan refusing Chinese sovereignty. Taiwan said that any future blockades will be considered an act of war.

5. The US approved a major arms sale to Taiwan. The $2 billion deal is for NASAMS air defense systems and AMRAAM missiles. The US, having learned from Ukraine, is hoping to prep Taiwan for invasion before it happens.

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Xi And Putin Use BRICS Summit To Sow Closer Ties

On 22 October, Russian President Putin and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. Both Xi and Putin expressed a desire to take a shared-lead in further developing BRICS, an emerging economies pact that aims to unseat the G7 and US-led economic order.

Xi and Putin also made a point to highlight the growing Sino-Russian friendship in an increasingly “chaotic” world, one in which China and Russia are - allegedly - forces for “international equity and justice.”

Why This Matters

Xi and Putin have cleverly leveraged the BRICS platform to deepen strategic ties under a guise of global peace, development, and security. In a Global Times article, Xi was praised for the bilateral meeting with Putin, claiming it displayed “non-alliance, non-confrontation and not targeting any third party” diplomacy.

What the article fails to mention is China’s hidden position on global affairs: The CCP openly supplies Russia with weapons and munitions, Xi has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and BRICS is looking to become a formalized alliance against G7 and NATO.

Russia’s and China’s goals are to re-establish a multipolar world devoid of strong, coordinated Western alliances. This is to make challenging Russian and Chinese strategic ambitions more difficult (i.e. an invasion of Ukraine or Taiwan).

Russia and China are likely to update and enhance their strategic partnership, either bilaterally or through BRICS. In 2001, the two countries signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation which outlined a 20-year plan on mutual strategy. In 2021, Moscow and Beijing issued a statement opposing unilateralism (specifically against Western powers).

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US, Japan Launch Exercise “Keen Sword 25”

On 23 October, the US military and the Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF) launched biennial exercise “Keen Sword 25“ to enhance bilateral combat readiness and interoperability. The exercise takes place across Japan’s territories and includes participation from Canada and Australia.

The exercise will include training iterations for various warfighting capabilities such as air defense operations, ground maneuvers, and amphibious landings by US Marines.

Why This Matters

Japan and the US have publicly acknowledged increased aggressive rhetoric and military actions by regimes in China and North Korea. Japan and the US have an opportunity to develop tactical and operations proficiencies, but at the highest level, “Keen Sword 25” is a resolute display against regional aggressors and a firm commitment to mutually deterring such forces.

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China And India Agree To Border Peace, Xi And Modi Meet At BRICS

On 23 October, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping met in Kazan, Russia, during the 16th BRICS Summit. The meeting was the first bilateral meeting between the two leaders since 2019. China and India have maintained strained relations due to a violent border clash in the Galwan Valley in 2020.

Xi and Modi were able to approach the BRICS Summit with optimism. On 20 October, China and India reached a patrolling agreement along their Himalayan border. No details were shared, but both sides agreed to reduce tensions, institute patrolling policies, and to remain open to future coordination.

Why This Matters

Both the BRICS meeting and the border policies are major steps in China and India recovering relations with one another. China was quick to celebrate Xi’s meeting with Modi, touting it as a victory for both country’s as well as the “multi-polarization of the world order.”

Xi clearly views India as a desired partner. He urged Modi to increase the Sino-Indian dialogue so that both country’s can support mutual development goals.

While Modi will enjoy reduced tensions, it is uncertain how open India is to greater partnership with China and BRICS. Modi has tactfully positioned India on the global stage. Biden visited Modi in September 2023 and commended his commitments to the G20, the US-Indian Strategic Partnership, and “the Quad,” an Indo-Pacific cooperative.

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China Launches Live-Fire Exercise In Waters Near Taiwan; Taiwan Defines Acts Of War

On 22 October, China launched a series of live-fire drills near the Pingtan islands. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense is monitoring the exercises which it views as an annual show of force aimed at increasing Cross-Strait tensions.

The CCP said the drills near Pingtan were due to Taiwan not recognizing CCP sovereignty.

The drills follow China’s 10 October “Joint Sword-2024B” exercise which surrounded Taiwan. This exercise is also preceded by Xi Jinping’s message to the PLA to “prepare for war.”

On 23 October, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo said that a future blockade of Taiwan by the PLA Navy and PLA Coast Guard would be considered an act of war. The “Joint Sword-2024B” maneuvers simulated a blockade of Taiwan.

Why This Matters

These recent drills have significantly heightened tensions in the Taiwanese Strait. They reflect China’s increasing aggression as well as its growing military readiness.

Taiwan’s warning about future blockades is also a stark development. It raises questions as to whether or not Taiwan would respond with its own maneuvers in the event of another large-scale PLA exercise.

The US has urged China to scale back its aggressive military actions but remains committed to the defense of Taiwan.

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US Approves Major Arms Sale To Taiwan Following Chinese Exercises

On 25 October, the Pentagon announced that it was approving a new arms sale to Taiwan due to increasing Sino-Taiwanese tensions. The sale, valued at $2 billion, is for three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM).

Both systems have been used to great effect in Ukraine and are expected to significantly improve Taiwan’s active air defense infrastructure.

Why This Matters

A part of China’s strategy for seizing Taiwan includes extensive missile and aircraft strikes on key Taiwanese military and infrastructure positions. By preemptively providing Taiwan with advanced air defense systems, the US is hoping to increase Taiwan’s deterrence and defense capability.

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End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

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See you tomorrow morning at 0700 ET.

Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick