Monday Morning Brief (4-7 July 2024)

Catch up on some major politicking in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East...

Author

Nicholas Weber
July 08, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning everyone, and welcome to another Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. I hope everyone had a wonderful 4th of July weekend.

This should take 6 minutes to finish.

Reporting Period: 4-7 July

(Missed the Sunday SITREP? Read it here)

Bottom-Line Up Front:

  • China endorsed Kazakhstan’s entry into the BRICS bloc during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana.

  • The NATO member heads of state are going to meet in Washington D.C. this week to discuss policy and celebrate 75 years of the alliance.

  • The U.S. has committed $2.3 billion to Ukraine.

  • The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party is launching a new fentanyl accountability group aimed at making new policy to end the fentanyl crisis.

  • Hungary’s PM Orban met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Orban is also building a right-wing movement in the EU parliament.

  • Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian has won Iran’s presidential elections.

China Endorses Kazakhstan Entry Into BRICS, Seeks Energy Guarantees
3 July 2024

On 3 July, Xi Jinping said China endorses Kazakhstan’s entry into the BRICS group during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan. China and Kazakhstan also discussed increasing trade and energy partnerships. China is looking for more oil and gas from Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan exported over $5 billion in oil and petroleum to China last year. Xi Jinping is looking to Astana to provide long-term energy guarantees.

Why This Matters

Kazakhstan is one of China’s core partners in their global Belt and Road Initiative. Kazakhstan has also been a middle man between China and Russia, allowing Chinese goods to flow to Russia without interference from the West.

BRICS is also growing, and becoming more of a formal alliance. With current BRICS membership, they possess 35% of the world’s GDP while the G7 has declined to 25%.

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NATO Members Meeting In Washington For Alliance Anniversary
5 July 2024

From 9-11 July, NATO heads of state and key leadership will meet in Washington, D.C. to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the military alliance. Heads of state are expected to discuss key security concerns, such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as rising tensions in the Pacific.

NATO’s website is highlighting the importance of the meeting, calling this “ the most dangerous security environment since the Cold War.”

Why This Matters

NATO is looking to assemble 32 members to realign and recommit to common security policy. NATO is at a pivotal point, facing conflict across three global regions.

Members will look to leave the summit with new agendas in deterrence, aid to Ukraine, and developing partnerships in the Pacific.

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U.S. Commits $2.3 Billion To Ukraine
4 July 2024

On 3 July, the Pentagon announced that a new $2.3 billion military package was approved for Ukraine. $150 million of the package draws directly from U.S. munitions stockpiles, and includes artillery shells and rockets. $2.2 billion of the package is a part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative which include purchases from U.S. arms manufacturers.

Why This Matters

Ukraine is in desperate need of munitions, particularly to defeat Russian armored assets and aircraft. The munitions sale will give Ukraine some immediate relief, but the package is generally considered a long-term security investment for Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III recently promised more air defense platforms and munitions to Ukraine.

Want To Read More?

  • Coverage by CNN

U.S. Launches New Fentanyl Policy Working Group
4 July 2024

The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party is launching the Fentanyl Policy Working Group to investigate and expose the Chinese Communist Party’s role in perpetuating the fentanyl crisis in America. The working group will begin immediately.

The working group is led by Representative Dan Newhouse (R-WA) and Jake Auchincloss (D-MA). The group will codify and amend sanctions on the Chinese entities that proliferate the manufacture and trade of fentanyl.

“From funding the manufacturing and export of illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals to holding ownership interest in companies tied to drug trafficking, the CCP is not only an active participant in the drug trade—they are directly incentivizing it. While the CCP continues to economically enrich themselves at the expense of the health and safety of millions of Americans, it is imperative that the United States sends a clear message: the buck stops here.”

Dan Newhouse (R-WA)

Why This Matters

In 2023, there were an estimated 74,000 deaths from fentanyl in the United States. The manufacture and trade of fentanyl is highly lucrative to the Chinese and drug cartels, and is used as a non-conventional tactic to create a security dilemma in the U.S.

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Hungary PM Orban Meets With Putin, Still Shaking Up EU Politics
5 July 2024

On Friday, 5 July, Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The visit to Moscow is the first by an EU leader since April 2022. The EU’s heads of state have denounced the visit. Hungary is the current presidency for the Council of the European Union (the group’s governing body). Orban said they discussed how to end the war in Ukraine.

On 6 July, the conservative Dutch and Spanish parties announced their plans to join Hungary’s right-wing “Patriots for Europe” alliance in the EU. Official groupings in the EU need 23 Members of Parliament from 7 different countries. Orban is still shopping new members across Europe.

Why This Matters

TL;DR: Right-wing politics is growing across Europe, but Viktor Orban has an opportunity to unite and coordinate right-wing parties into a powerful movement in the EU.

Viktor Orban is one of Europe’s most controversial heads of state. Outwardly, he is viewed as pro-Russian, anti-EU, and very conservative. Orban has resisted aid to Ukraine and emplacing sanctions on Russia. Orban has kept open dialogue with Vladimir Putin. Hungary also entertains closer relations with China.

In the EU, there has been growing support for right-wing parties due to troubled economies, the conflict in Ukraine, global security concerns, and poor social and cultural policies. Right-wing governments currently control some of Europe’s most crucial states such as Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czechia, and the Netherlands.

Want To Read More?

  • Orban’s visit to Moscow by CNN

  • Oban’s EU ambitions by Politico

Masoud Pezeshkian Wins Presidential Election In Iran
6 July 2024

On 6 July, Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran’s runoff presidential election. Pezeshkian is styled as a reformist. He has alluded to modernizing Iran’s cultural practices (such as the mandatory headscarves for women) and says he wishes to have more dialogue with the West.

Why This Matters

It is hard to determine what changes Pezeshkian will be able to do under the Khamenei regime. It is possible the regime is open to making some moderate cultural changes to appease the public and gain popular support.

In the West, the concerns are with Iran’s foreign policy. Pezehkian speaks about better dialogue with the West, but has shared known details about the Iran-sponsored proxy wars throughout the Middle East (particularly involving Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis).

Comment: Political power in Iran ultimately resides with the Supreme Leader, the political, military, and spiritual leader of the nation. Ali Khamenei has ruled since 1989.

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End Brief

That concludes your update on some key events from this past weekend.

Reminder for the the next brief:

  • Thursday morning brief @ 0630

Did you miss yesterday’s Sunday SITREP? Check it.