Monday Morning Brief (27-30 June 2024)

Good morning! I hope you enjoyed a news-free weekend, because I got your back. Take a seat and enjoy this Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

There are some interesting things here, so give yourself about 8 minutes to get through it all.

Reporting Period: 27-30 June

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• On 26 June, a Bolivian general led an attempted coup in La Paz, Bolivia.

• The United States, Japan, and South Korea began the trilateral “Freedom Edge” exercise in the East China Sea amid growing tensions with North Korea.

• The House Oversight Committee discussed decades of ignorance and incompetence across the U.S. government in dealing with the rising Chinese threat.

• Four eastern European nations called for the construction of a military defensive line on the borders with Russia and Belarus.

• Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is preparing for a potential conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

• The House passed the Defense Appropriations Act which provides the defense community $833 billion for FY25.

• The Iran-backed Houthis have continued to fire missiles at cargo vessels transiting the region.

• Iran’s presidential elections are going to a runoff.

An Attempted Coup In La Paz, Bolivia
27 June 2024

On 26 June, Bolivian Army General Juan Jose Zuniga was arrested at the government palace in La Paz, along with other military officers, after attempting a coup. Zuniga’s forces seized control of President Arce’s government. The coup lasted three hours. The coup ended after soldiers and protestors rushed the palace. Zuniga and his conspirators are in custody.

Why This Matters

Bolivia has been experiencing political and economic turmoil. President Arce and former-President Morales have been squabbling for control of the “Movement for Socialism” party (the ruling party).

Bolivia and the U.S. have had troubled relations since the 2019 Senkata and Sacaba massacres and the 2019 Bolivian political crisis.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

United States Launches Trilateral Exercise To Counter North Korea
27 June 2024

On June 27, the United States, Japan, and South Korea began the “Freedom Edge” exercise in the East China Sea. A statement from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command says the exercise focuses on “multi-domain” capabilities, to include Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), air defense, Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), search and rescue, maritime interdiction, and cyber warfare.

This is the first iteration of the three day exercise.

Why This Matters

Freedom Edge begins at a very relevant time. Russia and North Korea recently signed a renewed mutual defense pact (their most robust since the Cold War). North Korea has continued ballistic missile tests that frequently fly over Japan.

The trilateral engagement also prepares the United States and allies for conflict with China, another fear as those tensions continue to rise.

Want To Read More?

• Press release by USINDOPACOM

House Oversight Committee Calls-Out Government Failure In Dealing With China
27 June 2024

On June 26, the House on Oversight and Accountability called out the U.S. governments failures and ineptitudes in dealing with the growing Chinese threat. Over the course of multiple hours, the committee highlighted how Chinese political warfare has negatively affected the U.S. public and government. They also spoke about how China out-maneuvered the United States for years and tricked decisionmakers into believing they are not a threat.

Why This Matters

China has a growing economy and a growing military. They have advanced in technology in one generation through espionage and theft. The CCP is emboldened and relentlessly pursues policies that will, one day, allow the PLA to seize Taiwan by force.

Comment: I watched some of this as it happened, and there was great testimony. I was happy to see Americans on both sides of the political aisle in agreement on two things:

1. How the government has failed - for decades - to address the China threat and

2. How everyone agreed that new policies, measures, and ideology need to be adopted to meet this threat

If you do any further reading through this newsletter today, make it the two testimonies below.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by The Georgia Virtue

• The full hearing by House Oversight Committee

• Testimony of James Fanell, Captain, USN (retired)

• Testimony of Mary Kissel, former Senior Advisor to the Secretary of State

European Nations Call For Construction Of Defensive Line On Russian, Belarusian Borders
27 June 2024

The leaders of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia penned a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, requesting the construction of a defensive line along the borders with Russia and Belarus.

The four nations, who are at the EU’s eastern edge, share borders with either Russia, Belarus, or both. All four nations also share brutal histories under Russian and Soviet rule.

The length of the defensive line could be as long at 700 milometers (approximately 435 miles) and could cost $2.6 billion.

Why This Matters

Eastern European states worry that Russia’s aggression might not stop at Ukraine. The four countries also cited hybrid warfare, such as increased acts of sabotage or increases in illegal migrants sponsored by Russia and Belarus.

The worry is that further hybrid warfare actions by Russian and Belarusian proxies could destabilize regions if left unchecked.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Novaya Gazeta

• New documentary that covers some of Russia’s hybrid warfare (Balkan Insight)

Israel’s Defense Minister Says War With Hezbollah A Possibility
27 June 2024

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. reporters that while Israel does not want to escalate tensions in the Middle East by going to war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, that the country is prepared to do so.

Why This Matters

Hezbollah is an Iran-backed terror group in Lebanon. They have been fighting with Israeli forces but the conflict has yet to escalate.

The U.S. has warned Israel against escalating the conflict and proliferating another war. Israel is committed to defending itself. Iran’s new president might pressure Hezbollah to continue their terror streak, or even escalate.

The Hezbollah proxies complicate the situation in the Middle East, especially since Biden’s proposed ceasefire plan for Gaza has some traction.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by DW

House Passes Defense Appropriations Act For FY25
28 June 2024

On Thursday, the House of Representatives met to consider the Defense Appropriations Act for fiscal year 25. The measure was put to a vote and approved 217 to 198.

The act provides the defense community $833 billion for FY25. House Republicans touted the increase, as well as the realigned guidance it poses on the defense community. Here are some key takeaways:

• Allocating $200 million for Taiwan’s military development

• Increase investment for 5th and 5th generation fighter aircraft

• Allocating $1.3 billion to the Defense Innovation Unit

• Funding the 4.5% pay increase for military personnel

• Funding 15% pay increase for junior enlisted military personnel

• Transferring Mexico to U.S. Southern Command

• Providing $500 million for Israel’s missile defense programs

Why This Matters

There seems to be a scramble in the defense world due to shaky foreign policy in recent years. The legislation focuses on three things, in my opinion:

1. Realigning the defense community towards military missions

2. Investing in giving the military the weapons and systems it needs to fight and win in tomorrow’s war

3. Investing in allies to deter near-peer adversaries

Want To Read More?

• The press release by the Appropriations Committee

Houthis Continue Missile Attacks Against Cargo Vessels
28 June 2024

On 28 June, Houthi terrorists in Yemen fired 5 missiles at a civilian cargo vessel. None of the missiles hit the ship, but it is a continuation of the Houthis terror in the region. More than 60 ships have been targeted by Houthi missile strikes. Since November, one ship has been seized and two have been sunk.

Why This Matters

The Houthis claim to be targeting American, British, and Israeli vessels that are aiding the Israeli military, but many of the ships that have been attacked have no such connection.

The U.S. has responded with airstrikes on Houthi targets before, but the missile attacks continue. There is a possibility that if they keep occurring, or become more deadly, that a new conflict in the Middle East could begin.

The Houthis are backed by Iran.

Want To Read More?

• ABC News coverage

Iran’s Presidential Elections Going to Runoff
29 June 2024

Iran’s presidential elections have prompted a second round of voting on 5 July. Masoud Pezeshkian led with 42.5% of all votes. Saeed Jalili was close behind with 38.6% of votes. Only 24 of 60 million eligible voters cast a ballot. This was the lowest voter turnout in Iran since the new republics founding in 1979.

Why This Matters

Iran’s Guardian Council review and certify election results. The council also determines which candidates are eligible to run for office. Frontrunner Pezeshkian is touted as a reformist who could be easier for Westerners to work with.

It is uncertain how either candidate would fair with the Khomeini regime. Iran’s nuclear proliferation and sponsorship of terrorism are still top concerns.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

End Brief

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